-
Comment: Housing market needs some jolts of innovation to end current malaise
During the past year, I was often asked what I thought would happen to Vancouver’s housing market. My response was simple. There is no Vancouver housing market.
There is a downtown highrise market which differs from the Fraser Valley townhouse market. Similarly, there are rental housing markets and ownership markets catering to first-time buyers, move-up buyers and last-time buyers.
That said, industry associations and experts often generalize about overall sales, housing starts and prices.
At the end of 2024, the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) predicted realtors would enjoy a 13 per cent sales jump in 2025 driven by lower mortgage rates and government policies. Prices were expected to rise modestly.
However, due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs announced in early February, it soon became apparent sales were falling far short of expectations and BCREA revised its outlook.
It is now estimated that 2025 will be the year during which the Lower Mainland experienced the lowest number of home sales this century.
While home sales dropped off significantly here, it was even worse in Toronto. In October, only twenty-five new condominiums were sold in the city. To put this in perspective, it is less than the number of players on the unforgettable Toronto Blue Jays baseball team.
Trump’s tariffs also impacted new housing starts. In January 2025, MLA Canada, one of B.C.’s most successful project marketing firms, predicted 125 condominium projects would launch across the Lower Mainland.
However, by year end, MLA tracked only forty-nine launches, sixty per cent below their forecast and only half the Lower Mainland’s ten-year average. However, some of these were subsequently put on hold or converted to rental.
MLA has not issued a 2026 forecast. However, it expects that the coming year could look a lot like last year. For one thing, investors are almost non-existent due to declining rents and a plethora of government policies that discourage investment.
Furthermore, Rennie Intelligence, estimates there could be 3,400 completed and unsold condominiums on the market by year end, and many more thousands still under construction but not yet sold.
In 2026, thousands of purpose-built rental units are also scheduled for completion which could further bring down rents. While this is good news for renters, it is bad news for developers.
Dozens of other condominium and rental projects have approvals in place but are not proceeding since they are no longer financially viable. This is due to a low level of consumer confidence, excessive municipal fees and high interest and construction costs.
To encourage some of these projects to get underway, Vancouver recently agreed to a myriad of measures that include reductions in development fees and engineering requirements, and deferred payments of fees.
I agree with this approach, since fees charged to condominium developers are usually passed on to new homeowners. It seems misguided to expect those who do not own homes to finance the costs of growth, rather than those who already own homes. Especially since based on 2021 Census data analyzed by SFU’s Andy Yan, nearly 50 per cent of Vancouver homeowners have no mortgage.
While condominium living offers many benefits, people moving out of these mortgage-free single-family houses are often apprehensive about moving into a development that might be run by a strata council whose president may have wanted to be prime minister of Canada but ended up overseeing eighteen townhouses.
For these reasons, I have been urging governments to make it easier to build ‘fee-simple,’ individually owned townhouses as an alternative to condominium townhouses. Although commonplace in Toronto and elsewhere around the world, they are rarely developed here.
The same applies to duplexes. Many people buy a duplex without realizing they are buying into a strata development. Even though it is made up of only two strata lots, the owners are required to abide by the rules and regulations of the Strata Property Act.
There is a ‘fee-simple’ alternative to the duplex — a ‘semi-detached’ house — one of the most common forms of housing in the U.K. and elsewhere around the world. But like fee-simple townhouses, they will not be built here until municipalities make it easier to subdivide properties into smaller lots and establish reduced permit and hook-up fees.
Now that the provincial government is aggressively mandating small-scale, multi-unit housing throughout the province, fee-simple townhouses and semi-detached homes could be attractive alternatives to strata-titled four- and six-unit multiplexes.
Although fee-simple townhouses did not become popular in 2025, another type of housing which I have often promoted in these year-end columns did finally gain popularity. I refer to factory-built modular housing which was recognized by Prime Minister Mark Carney as an effective way to build new homes.
While we will not likely see the 4,000 modular home starts promised by the Prime Minister, I agree with him and federal Housing Minister Gregor Robertson that factory production offers many benefits in terms of construction quality, speed of erection and cost effectiveness.
I would like to conclude with something completely different.
Last year, several reports surfaced linking reduced fertility rates to a lack of suitably designed and affordable family housing. The result was that Canada’s fertility rate hit a new record low of 1.25 children per woman. This did not surprise me.
For years, young couples have told me they were not having children because they could not afford family friendly two- or three-bedroom apartments. While a house with a basement mortgage-helper would be perfect, that was completely out of their price range.
To address this concern, twenty-five years ago during the planning of SFU’s UniverCity community, I proposed designing apartments with a second or third bedroom with its own door to the corridor that could serve as a basement suite equivalent.
Initially, the suite could be rented out as a mortgage-helper. Over time, as the family grew, it would revert to a second or third bedroom.
Fortunately, the City of Burnaby agreed to change its zoning so that a percentage of the apartments could include these lock-off suites.
Former Tyee journalist Monte Paulsen, who sadly died in 2024, called them ‘basement suites-in-the-sky’ and they have subsequently become quite popular. An increasing number of municipalities now allow them.
In 2026, it is my hope that more developers will consider incorporating lock-off suites in their apartment buildings, especially since lenders now recognize the rental income when determining mortgage amounts. This could allow more households to enjoy future holiday seasons with their children.
On this happy note, my best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2026.
Michael Geller FCIP, RPP, MLAI, Ret. Architect AIBC is a Vancouver-based planner and real estate consultant. He also serves on SFU’s adjunct faculty. You can reach him at [email protected] and find his blog at www.gellersworldtravel.blogspot.com.
18-12-2025 -
They're in the midst of taking over the casino licence at Hastings and the Whitecaps are looking at building a stadium there as part of an entertainment complex
Tsleil-Waututh Nation chief Justin Sky George is neatly navigating around questions about buying into the Vancouver Whitecaps.
The Tsleil-Waututh Nation are in the midst of taking over the Hastings Park casino licence — “it’s with legal, and we are acquiring it,” George says — and it was announced last week that the Whitecaps have signed an agreement with the City of Vancouver for a one-year negotiation period to pursue a new stadium and entertainment district on the site of the Hastings Park Racecourse.
The Whitecaps announced a year ago that they were up for sale, but CEO and sporting director Axel Schuster has repeatedly said that the priority is to find investors keen on keeping the team in Vancouver. Principal owner Greg Kerfoot is expected to stay on with a new group wanting to keep the club here, and the pitch has been that having their own stadium rather than renting B.C. Place would make the team more profitable.
So does being a Whitecaps partner make sense?
“There’s talk about this redevelopment. We don’t know all the innards of what that looks like, so it would be presumptuous for me to say at this point,” George explained of purchasing a share of the club. “At the end of the day, we have an asset that we think can be of benefit to potentially the new owner, the Whitecaps, and the redevelopment of that location.”
George, 56, comes from a sports background. He was a 52-goal scorer in the BCHL with the Chilliwack Eagles in 1988-89, and went on to play collegiately at both Ferris State and Northern Michigan.
He said that the Whitecaps have been a “bright light for the city with an incredible season,” and “we, too, want to see the Whitecaps stay at home here.”
Thomas Müller #13 of the Vancouver Whitecaps FC and teammates react with the runner-up medal following the Audi 2025 MLS Cup Final match between Inter Miami CF and Vancouver Whitecaps FC at Chase Stadium on December 06, 2025 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Photo by Elsa /Getty Images
George also said of the possibility of a revamped Hastings Park region: “We’re open and happy to have discussions around what the future development looks like. We want to be at that table and we want to make that work.”
A new-look Hastings Park would obviously help drive traffic to a casino there. The casino has had 446 slots and no gaming tables, and George says, “We are content with the licence purchase and are also open to discussions of any proposed redevelopment on the site.”
The Tsleil-Waututh Nation have partnered with the Musqueam and Squamish nations on deals in the past — the MST Development Corp. are full or co-owners of six properties throughout Metro Vancouver according to its website — and Schuster said at the Hastings Park news conference that, “We keep the door open for every conversation, every partner, and we will speak with everyone. That includes the three tribes, that includes everyone else who potentially can be interested in partnering with us there. But we will not discuss in public with whom we are discussing.”
George maintains that the Hastings Park premise is a “redevelopment of a location that’s long overdue.”
“I think it’s an exciting opportunity to bring tax benefits to the city and entertainment,” he continued. “We’re a city lacking in entertainment.
“We have the casino. They’re talking hotel. They’re talking Whitecaps. They’re talking other entertainment. It all creates an economy in itself. People go have coffee after games. They go have dinner and so on. It has a direct positive impact in terms of employment and economic elements that touch the surrounding area.
“It’s very early stages and we’re aware of and want to be respectful of the surrounding community and go through the proper processes to find something that’s a win-win for everyone. You’re never going to make absolutely everyone happy, but I think this is such a very unique opportunity, and I think if you have the right teams at the table it can be something very special and a great legacy for the area.”
The casino at Hastings Park in Vancouver on June 9. Photo by Arlen Redekop /PNG
The Whitecaps are coming off their best season in the MLS, making it all the way to the league championship game, where they fell 3-1 to Inter Miami.
MLS commissioner Don Garber has been publicly critical of the Whitecaps’ lease deal with B.C. Place and has made it clear that the team moving to another city is an option. The Whitecaps and PavCo, which operates B.C. Place, are working on a new agreement, but Schuster has said repeatedly that the team will be playing in Vancouver next season.
Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim said at the Hastings Park news conference that, “We’re asking the provincial government to step up, get a deal done with Vancouver Whitecaps, and look at the long term.”
Tsleil-Waututh Nation and Great Canadian Entertainment announced last month that they had entered into a “definitive agreement” for the band to purchase the casino operations and related real estate property interest at Hastings Racecourse and Casino. They began negotiations over the summer.
George says it’s “about creating a healthy economy for the people.”
“It goes back to the day when my late father Leonard was chief — it was the community’s mandate to become self-sufficient and also put ourselves in a position to act like a government. And you need money to do that,” he continued.
On Dec. 5, Hastings Racecourse and Casino announced that it was ceasing thoroughbred horse racing at the facility effective immediately. Gary Johnson, president of Horse Racing B.C., told Postmedia he and other representatives have reached out to the city to ask for a meeting to explore options to keep horse racing alive while negotiations between Whitecaps and the city unfold.
16-12-2025 -
If you filed on paper last year you'll have to print them out yourself or ask for them, and they won't include all the supplemental forms
If you filed your 2024 tax return on paper, the Canada Revenue Agency would like you to know that you won’t automatically receive a paper version of the 2025 forms in the mail next year.
Under the heading of “Important changes to the 2025 income tax package: What you need to know,” the CRA last week notified taxpayers that the practice of mailing out the most recent forms has been shelved.
“This decision has been made to support the CRA’s continued shift to digital services,” the agency said in a press release. “Electronic returns are generally processed much quicker than paper. Online self-serve options are also available for individuals to easily obtain what they need, if they choose to file on paper.”
The agency noted that last year about 93 per cent of income tax and benefit returns were filed online. It then nudges the remaining seven per cent with: “If you typically file on paper, why not enjoy the benefits of online filing?” It points out that refunds get delivered more quickly that way, and with less postal fuss.
“However, if you choose to file on paper, there are important changes to be aware of this tax-filing season,” it adds. In addition to not automatically mailing the forms, the standard tax package it sends if requested will come without a number of secondary forms that don’t get used much.
These include forms for capital gains and losses, multigenerational home renovation tax credits and education amounts, plus the provincial versions where applicable. “Careful analysis was completed in order to remove schedules that would minimize impact on individuals that still choose to file on paper,” the CRA said.
If you’re still determined to file on paper, the agency has a website where forms can be downloaded and printed, or you can contact the CRA by phone to request forms. It notes that forms for the 2025 tax year won’t be available until Jan. 20, 2026, so any requests made before then will just result in a copy of the previous year’s forms being mailed to the caller.
The CRA also has a service called SimpleFile (formerly known as File My Return) that allows individuals with a lower income and a non-taxable outcome to have CRA complete and process the return on their behalf. It is also, of course, paperless.
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.
© 2025 National Post
15-12-2025 -
Cannabis is currently labelled a Schedule I drug, putting it in the same category that includes substances like heroin and LSD
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to direct his administration to move to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that could represent one of the biggest shifts in U.S. policy toward cannabis in decades.
Trump has discussed the idea with marijuana industry executives, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz, the sources said.
A White House official said no final decisions have been made on rescheduling. The Washington Post reported earlier on the plans.
Cannabis is currently labelled a Schedule I drug, putting it in the same category as substances such as heroin and LSD, categorized as having no medical use and a high potential for abuse. Trump is weighing pushing to reclassify it to a Schedule III drug, according to the people, which would move it to a tier for substances seen as having a lower potential for dependency — on the same level as ketamine, Tylenol with codeine, as well as anabolic steroids.
Reclassification would make it easier to buy and sell cannabis, delivering a major victory for companies and investors in the sector as well as patients who use medical marijuana. Cannabis companies have been lobbying for reform in Washington and a reclassification decision could ease tax burdens and obstacles to banking services, help draw more mainstream lenders and investors and bolster opportunities for medical research.
Shares of cannabis stocks surged in premarket trading. That included Tilray Brands Inc. gaining 33 per cent as of 8:22 a.m. in New York and Canopy Growth Corp. advancing 27 per cent.
U.S. legislation around cannabis is a patchwork. Though it’s banned federally, states differ widely in terms of legalization. More than 40 states and the District of Columbia allow marijuana use for medical purposes, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, while about half allow for recreational usage.
Efforts to pass federal legislation decriminalizing marijuana have so far yielded little progress.
While Trump may seek changes to the current status, including through an executive order, rescheduling would likely only take effect after the government finishes a rulemaking process that has been on hold since January.
Trump acknowledged deep divisions on the issue in August when he said a decision on marijuana classification could come in weeks. He said at the time that he had spoken to proponents of reclassification who stressed the medical benefits of cannabis and those on the other side who said loosening of restrictions posed a risk to children. The president told attendees at an August fundraiser in New Jersey that he was considering the change, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The campaign to reclassify marijuana gained momentum under U.S. President Joe Biden. The Justice Department in 2024 recommended shifting cannabis to Schedule III, prompting a formal review by the Drug Enforcement Administration. However, progress has been stalled with legal challenges and agency delays, leaving the issue and industry in limbo.
Opponents of reclassification have said the Biden administration’s case for the change relied on flawed reasoning and downplayed health risks.
Kennedy has previously supported decriminalization at the federal level. He has spoken often about his own personal experiences with addiction and said in February that he was concerned about high-potency marijuana, but that widespread state legalization and decriminalization offered a chance to study real-world effects.
The decision comes as Trump’s administration has sought to crack down on drug trafficking and taken a tougher stance on another drug, fentanyl.
Trump signed legislation in July that permanently designated all fentanyl-related substances as Schedule I drugs, increasing penalties for those caught trafficking. The president has seized on a public health crisis sparked by the synthetic opioid to crack down on border security and undocumented migration and has levied tariffs on the three largest U.S. trading partners in part over fentanyl trafficking.
With assistance from Skylar Woodhouse
12-12-2025 -
But household debt is ratcheting up again, according to Statistics Canada’s third quarter national balance sheet, released Thursday
Canadian households increased their total wealth to another record high of $18.4 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, marking a two-year streak where net worth increased for eight consecutive quarters.
Household net worth swelled by 2.6 per cent (or $460.5 billion) since the second quarter of the year, the largest increase in collective household wealth since the first quarter of 2024, according to Statistics Canada’s latest national balance sheet, released Thursday.
These gains were “supercharged” by “tremendous” growth in financial assets, said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Maria Solovieva. Financial assets rose 4.8 per cent (or $532.4 billion) to $11.7 trillion in the third quarter, as equity markets rallied.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 11.8 per cent, while the S&P 500 index increased 7.8 per cent during the third quarter of 2025.
Shelly Kaushik, senior economist and vice-president of economics at the Bank of Montreal, said a softer Canadian dollar also helped to raise the value of returns and assets denominated in foreign currencies.
Statistics Canada said in its summary of its national balance sheet report that these gains were likely skewed by the wealthiest households, who hold nearly 70 per cent of all financial assets. Solovieva said affluent Canadians have the ability to invest in financial assets and reap bigger benefits from this growth compared with less wealthy households who have typically built their wealth through real estate.
Non-financial assets (which include real estate holdings) dipped 0.3 per cent to about $10 trillion. This means the ratio of financial assets to non-financial assets reached its highest level (117.3 per cent) since the end of 2019, as financial assets continue to make up a much larger proportion of household wealth.
Residential real estate assets fell 0.6 per cent to $8.5 trillion during the third quarter, despite an uptick in market activity.
Kaushik said some homeowners may have seen the value of their real estate assets decline, depending on what part of the country they reside in. But in pockets of the country, some are still dealing with rising home prices, she added.
“Buyers are still looking at very much a seller’s market because there’s still quite a bit of demand,” she said. “That is particularly the case in more affordable areas.”
Housing affordability, measured by real estate as a percentage of household disposable income (488.1 per cent), waned for the sixth straight quarter, Statistics Canada said.
Household liabilities (which include both mortgage and non-mortgage debt) also increased by 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of the year, though this only partially offset financial asset growth.
Mortgage liabilities dropped to $23.4 billion in the third quarter of 2025, so this increase in household debt was driven by demand for non-mortgage debt (this includes loans and credit card debt) which increased to $10.1 billion. Consumer credit borrowing climbed for the second consecutive quarter to hit $7 billion, according to Statistics Canada.
Solovieiva said stronger activity in auto sales or people taking on more auto debt may have contributed to increased non-mortgage debt. New auto loan volumes climbed 4.8 per cent compared to a year ago, while inflation-adjusted card spend inched up by just 1.6 per cent, according to a recent survey from Equifax Inc.
Debt is also continuing to grow faster than income, with the ratio of household debt as a proportion of household disposable income increasing 0.4 per cent to 176.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2025. This equates to about $1.77 in household debt for every dollar of household disposable income, but is still lower than the $1.88 record high hit during the third quarter of 2022, according to Statistics Canada.
Kaushik said the debt-to-income ratio has improved over the past couple of years, but is deteriorating again, possibly due to lower interest rates encouraging more consumer borrowing.
“It’s not necessarily a position of concern for the overall financial health of the Canadian economy, but it is something to watch,” she said, adding that strong financial asset growth is providing a buffer.
Kaushik said she was previously concerned about a weaker labour market putting downward pressure on household incomes, but noted the unemployment rate fell 0.4 per cent in November, according to Statistics Canada’s latest labour force survey.
The question is whether the job market will improve from here and whether incomes can keep up with what is expected to be higher borrowing levels in the coming quarter, she said.
Solovieva said higher debt-to-income ratios may include homeowners renewing their mortgages at higher interest rates, adding to their debt. “We will continue to see that into 2026 as (more) households’ mortgages are going through the renewal cycle.”
Kaushik said despite falling interest rates over the past year, she expects the Bank of Canada has reached the end of its easing cycle for the foreseeable future, which could mean less borrowing relief for homebuyers.
“We do expect the housing market to remain in this slow recovery mode,” she said. “It might not necessarily be declining every quarter, but (we expect it) to remain quite weak, at least for the coming few quarters.”
But even if housing assets become a drag on net worth, Solovieva said she expects to see financial assets continue their upward trend in the next quarter unless there is a “significant pullback” in financial markets toward the end of the year.
With Canadian households investing a higher concentration of their wealth in equities, Kaushik said any potential disruption in the stock market could be a cause for concern for future net worth gains.
• Email: [email protected]
11-12-2025 -
New plan from MST Nations and Aquilini Development would see tallest tower heights rise from 28 storeys to 46 storeys
A real estate advisory team has listed the historic Hudson’s Bay downtown Vancouver store for sale.
Toronto and Vancouver-based commercial real estate firm CBRE Ltd. and California’s Marcus & Millichap were appointed to lead the sale of 674 Granville St., on behalf of the court-appointed receiver, FTI Consulting Canada Inc.
Whether it will remain a retail space or evolve into a form of mixed-use development is, for now, an open question.
Hudson’s Bay, saddled with $1.1 billion in debt, filed for creditor protection in March. When a buyer didn’t emerge, the company liquidated 80 stores, along with 16 Saks outlets. Some housed in suburban malls were sold but the 1926-built centrepiece on Granville failed to land a buyer.
Jim Szabo, vice-chairman of CBRE’s national investment team, envisions something similar to what happened with the former post office on nearby Homer Street for the HBC heritage property. In fact, Szabo secured that sale to QuadReal, which successfully repurposed that building into The Post, a mixed-use retail, food and office space that just sold for $1.1 billion.
However, he said it’s much too early to predict who might purchase and redevelop the high-profile site at Granville and West Georgia streets.
“I imagine it will be mixed use of some sort,” said Szabo, including retail, office and perhaps hotel space given Vancouver’s shortage of the latter. He said residential isn’t likely in the immediate future because Hudson’s Bay is in an area not currently zoned for housing.
The heritage building currently has more than 617,000 square feet across seven storeys, and two underground levels, including a connection to the Granville SkyTrain Station. The facade is heritage-protected but the interior space is flexible.
Szabo said a purchaser could potentially remove the heritage exterior walls and rebuild entirely from scratch, including much-needed seismic improvements, then reattach the walls once the new build is complete. That’s similar to what is being done by Reliance Properties with a heritage site at Beatty and Robson streets.
That will obviously take a lot of money on top of the sale price, which is why Szabo foresees a buyer restoring the current footprint then perhaps going higher with hotel and/or office space in a future phase when market conditions improve.
Years ago, a company related to the building’s owners pitched a redevelopment that would have added a 12-storey glass tower and a million square feet of office space above the former store. But a rezoning application never happened and demand for new office space has stalled.
Still, Szabo sees it as an “iconic” property that will draw plenty of interest from local developers and retailers, as well as commercial real estate and hotel companies around the world. There’s precedent from The Post sale there, too. It sold to Pontegadea, the family office of Spanish billionaire and Zara fashion company founder Amancio Ortega.
“This is an extraordinary opportunity to acquire one of Vancouver’s most iconic assets,” said Szabo. “The scale, location and connectivity of 674 Granville St. are unmatched in the market.”
Szabo touted the former Hudson’s Bay property as being at “centre ice” in the city’s financial and retail district — including being integrated closely with the Pacific Centre mall across the street — and its potential to house multiple tenants in retail, office, hotel or a mix of all the above.
The listing says its “combination of scale, location and future adaptability positions this asset as one of the most compelling investment opportunities in one of Canada’s dynamic urban markets.”
With files from Joanne Lee-Young
04-12-2025
