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Richard Robbins Video on REBGV October 2019 Market Update

Richard Robins
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Richard Robbins Video on REBGV October 2019 Market Update

 

00:01

– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here.

00:02

Well, the numbers are in for the real estate board

00:04

of Greater Vancouver, and I got nothin’ but good news.

00:09

Maybe one little piece of bad news,

00:11

but other than that, all good news.

00:12

Hey, at the end I got a brand new slide for you.

00:15

And what the slide is, it’s a line graph

00:17

that’s gonna show you the amount of sales that took place

00:20

month to month, for the last three years.

00:23

A great slide to maybe consider using

00:25

in your listing presentations and working with buyers.

00:28

So let’s go ahead and get started.

00:30

Here we go, January through the end of August.

00:33

Look at this, 2858 sales.

00:36

That’s up 22% over September.

00:39

That is a really big number, and we look at

00:42

our active listings, we had 12,200

00:46

and that is down 9% over September.

00:50

So, if our sales are up 22%,

00:52

our active listings are down 9%,

00:55

what should be happening to our months of inventory,

00:57

which determines your price, your supply and demand,

01:00

obviously going way down, it’s down 25.7%.

01:05

Now as I always say, your four to six months

01:07

of inventory is balanced, above six is going to be

01:10

a buyer’s market, your prices are weakening,

01:12

below four it’s going to be a seller’s market,

01:14

and your prices are strengthening.

01:16

Look at this, we have moved right into

01:18

a balanced market, everybody.

01:20

Look where we started, 9.8, almost 10 months

01:23

of inventory, and you can see what’s going on here,

01:26

and now we’re at 4.3, not far off.

01:29

Starting to move into an area where you’re gonna see

01:32

possibly your prices of certain properties

01:34

really start to increase.

01:36

So all very good news.

01:37

You can even see here, our prices were almost exactly

01:40

stable, up .2% over the month before.

01:45

But let’s look at this right here.

01:46

Sales, you did 1966 last October.

01:49

2858, that’s up by 45%!

01:53

This is a huge number, right here.

01:56

And then what about price?

01:57

Well yes, your prices are down year over year, why?

02:00

Because, very much at the end of last year,

02:02

most of the first part of this year,

02:04

you’re in a buyer’s market where prices were falling,

02:07

but now again as I showed you back here,

02:09

prices are now starting to stabilize a little bit.

02:11

And of course, what you’re gonna start to see,

02:13

is you’re probably going to start to see this increase.

02:15

If not at the end of this year, you’re gonna start to see

02:18

that increase definitely as we get into the first

02:20

part of next year.

02:21

So basically, all good news here.

02:23

Look at this one here, this is your months of inventory

02:26

for the last three years.

02:27

Now, this has got nothing to do with how many sales.

02:30

This is only supply and demand, months of inventory.

02:34

So look at it, 2017 we’re just above four.

02:38

Obviously really strong here, we get down to two.

02:41

You know, crept along at two, back up around three,

02:44

and we ended the year at 3.5.

02:46

What happened in 2018?

02:49

Look where we started, way up here, was pretty-

02:51

I should say, right here at four, and then

02:54

we were pretty balanced, but then what happened

02:56

is we moved into the middle of the year,

02:58

it just kept creeping up, kept creeping up

03:01

till we get to 9.6.

03:03

Of course, we started this year

03:05

at almost 10 months of inventory; very, very high.

03:09

It came down a little bit as we get into the spring,

03:11

as it generally does, May it dipped a little bit,

03:14

but you’re still sitting here, and very close

03:16

to a buyer’s market, back up to a buyer’s market.

03:19

We’re over six, and then look what’s starting to happen.

03:21

We dropped down below last year’s line, do you see that?

03:25

This is really important.

03:26

So we dropped down below 2018, okay,

03:29

and you can see the gap here is increasing, isn’t it?

03:32

Which is a very good sign, I suspect you’re going to

03:35

see this continue for the rest of the year.

03:37

Where you’re going to see we’re substantially below

03:39

what we did in 2018.

03:41

When we get down to where we were here in 2017,

03:44

I don’t know for sure, but this is all really good news.

03:47

Completely moving the right way,

03:49

and I’ll be honest, this market has responded

03:53

to what’s been going on, quicker than I thought.

03:56

In other words, we’re starting to see it crack

03:59

very, very quickly.

04:00

I thought it would have taken a little longer.

04:02

But anyway, all good stuff.

04:03

So here’s your new graph.

04:05

So you can see what this is, is this is the amount

04:07

of sales that took place in the month.

04:10

And we’ve got 2017, 18′, and 2019.

04:14

So look at 2017, obviously, look at the sales.

04:17

Over 3000, over 3000, we get up here we’re 4000,

04:21

almost 4000, so you can see 2017, it was crazy good, right?

04:26

Then what happened, moving to 2018,

04:29

started here and of course, we’re down substantially.

04:32

You see the gap, okay?

04:34

Big difference right here.

04:36

So this is a really cool graph that you could be showing,

04:38

and we’re down here and you can see there’s

04:40

a pretty big gap between 2017 and 2018, in terms of sales.

04:45

Your sales were off a lot.

04:47

Then we started here, huge gap, right?

04:50

Beginning of 2019, well below the year before,

04:54

way below two years ago, then all of a sudden

04:57

what started to happen here?

04:59

We broke through.

05:00

And we went above what was going on last year,

05:03

and look, we stayed above that.

05:04

So you can see now, now there’s a gap between

05:07

2018, and this gap got pretty big right here, look at this.

05:11

Almost reaching what we did in 2017.

05:14

So a really cool graph, actually both of these right here,

05:18

I think are very useful in terms of presentation.

05:21

So what do I think is gonna happen?

05:22

Well first of all, federal election is behind us, right?

05:25

So a lot of people will get back to, you know,

05:28

the new norm, if you will.

05:30

You know, people are putting stuff off

05:32

because they wanted to wait and see what was gonna happen.

05:34

I also think your market’s responding very well.

05:37

You know, interest rates are still really low,

05:38

I think the last two months of this year

05:40

are going to be substantially better than

05:41

the last two months of last year.

05:43

And right now, barring any crazy economic change,

05:46

say by the government, interests rates staying really low,

05:50

I think 2020 is looking very, very bright

05:53

for that Greater Vancouver Area.

05:55

So anyway, I hope this was helpful, everybody.

05:57

And at the end of the day, remember,

05:59

it’s a beautiful life, make it count.

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